The Loan That Never Came Back

In January 2017, fifteen months after S Alam Group quietly acquired control of Islami Bank Bangladesh, the country's largest Shariah-based lender was already in distress. By 2025, Bangladesh Bank's own asset-quality review — conducted with the help of foreign audit firms — would confirm what regulators had long refused to acknowledge: the conglomerate and its affiliated entities had borrowed more than Tk 1 lakh crore from banks it controlled, the majority of which would never be repaid. The scale of the fraud was not exceptional. It was systematic.

Bangladesh's banking sector now holds the highest non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in Asia. As of September 2025, classified loans reached Tk 6.44 lakh crore — 35.73 percent of all outstanding loans disbursed by the country's banks, according to Bangladesh Bank data. The numbers represent more than an accounting crisis. They are the financial ledger of a decade and a half of politically enabled corporate fraud, regulatory capture, and institutional failure — a record that carries direct lessons from some of the most consequential corporate fraud cases in modern financial history.

Wirecard, Enron, and the Anatomy of Corporate Fraud

Corporate fraud at scale follows a recognisable pattern. Wirecard AG, the German payments company that collapsed in June 2020 after admitting that €1.9 billion in cash listed on its balance sheet did not exist, became one of Europe's defining financial scandals of the decade. For years, auditors signed off on falsified accounts. Regulators were slow to act. When Munich-based asset manager DWS Group — Germany's largest — sued the Wirecard administrator in 2021 to recover losses, it was because institutional investors had relied on published financial statements that concealed fundamental insolvency.

The parallel with Enron's 2001 collapse in the United States is instructive. Enron used special purpose vehicles and off-balance-sheet accounting to hide over $30 billion in liabilities from shareholders and regulators. Arthur Andersen, one of the world's largest auditing firms, signed off on the accounts. When the structure collapsed, it wiped out employee pension funds, triggered a wave of investor litigation, and directly produced the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 — the most significant overhaul of US corporate governance in a generation.

Both cases share a core architecture: the deliberate concealment of financial reality, enabled by complicit institutions, tolerated by regulators, and eventually exposed only when the losses became too large to hide. Bangladesh's banking crisis is structurally identical — except that the mechanism of concealment was not accounting software or derivatives. It was political patronage.

The Bangladesh Variant: Political Patronage as Financial Instrument

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) estimated that more than Tk 92,000 crore was siphoned out of the banking sector through 24 major loan scams since 2008. The real figure, now that international loan classification standards are being applied under the IMF's $4.7 billion programme conditions, is almost certainly higher.

The mechanism was straightforward. Powerful business conglomerates — S Alam Group, Beximco Group, Nassa Group, Sikder Group — used proximity to the ruling Awami League government to acquire controlling stakes in private and Islamic banks. Once in control of a bank's board, they directed loan disbursements to their own affiliated entities, often at minimal collateral requirements, with inflated project valuations. A former senior banker described the practice to The Business Standard: an LPG project worth Tk 450 crore would receive a loan of Tk 1,000 crore. The excess was diverted — to land purchases, luxury vehicles, and transfers offshore.

Bangladesh Bank's own monetary policy statement from February 2025 projected that NPLs would exceed 30 percent of total outstanding loans by mid-year. They did. By Q1 2025, NPLs had surged to Tk 4.20 lakh crore, with 81.38 percent of that figure — Tk 3.42 lakh crore — classified as "bad loans" requiring 100 percent provisioning. That provisioning requirement has effectively frozen the lending capacity of more than a dozen banks.

The Scale of Institutional Damage

Ten banks account for 71 percent of all NPLs in the sector, according to Bangladesh Bank data from Q1 2025. The concentration tells the story of targeted, not diffuse, fraud. Janata Bank, once a cornerstone of state banking, has seen 74.8 percent of its disbursed portfolio turn bad — Tk 70,845 crore on a loan book of Tk 94,734 crore — driven largely by defaults from Anontex, Crescent, Beximco, Thermax, and S Alam Group, whose combined exposure to the bank exceeded Tk 45,000 crore.

Islami Bank Bangladesh, which S Alam Group dominated until the political transition of August 2024, saw its NPLs rise from Tk 6,919 crore in 2023 to Tk 47,618 crore by March 2025. The group and its affiliates had borrowed more than 80 percent of Islami Bank's entire loan portfolio. Union Bank, also controlled by S Alam, saw bad loans reach nearly 90 percent of outstanding loans. The central bank has since initiated mergers involving five banks previously under the group's control — institutions whose combined NPL ratios exceeded 90 percent and whose bad loans represent 24 percent of the national total.

At IFIC Bank, where Salman F Rahman — Beximco's vice-chairman and a close adviser to the ousted prime minister — served as chairman, bad loans rose from Tk 3,756 crore in June 2024 to Tk 25,971 crore by March 2025. The Anti-Corruption Commission has filed 11 cases against Beximco-affiliated entities involving alleged fraud, embezzlement, and money laundering totalling Tk 5,734 crore. The commission is also investigating export proceeds of $14.7 million allegedly routed through a UAE-based shell company owned by members of the Rahman family.

By the end of 2024, 19 banks — including six state-owned lenders — faced a combined capital shortfall of Tk 1,71,700 crore, the highest on record. Bangladesh Bank officials warned that distressed assets, encompassing bad loans, written-off loans, rescheduled loans, and cases in Money Loan Courts, could cross Tk 10 lakh crore — a figure that would represent more than 20 percent of the country's annual GDP.

What Bangladesh's NPL Crisis Costs the Economy

The macroeconomic consequences of a banking system in this condition are not abstract. When classified loans rise, provisioning requirements reduce bank profitability and constrain fresh lending. The Daily Star's analysis found that banks facing severe NPL burdens are systematically redirecting capital into treasury bonds — a zero-default government instrument — rather than extending working capital or project finance to the private sector. The result is credit rationing at exactly the moment when businesses most need liquidity.

Small and medium enterprises are the most exposed. SMEs, which account for the majority of employment in Bangladesh's non-farm economy, depend disproportionately on bank credit. Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development and former chief economist of Bangladesh Bank, framed the mechanism precisely: a bank with Tk 20 in bad loans on a Tk 100 balance sheet must set aside Tk 20 in provisions, leaving it with Tk 80 to deploy — before accounting for regulatory capital requirements. Multiply that across a system where 35 percent of loans are classified, and the credit gap becomes structural.

Foreign investors and sovereign credit rating agencies treat elevated NPL ratios as indicators of systemic risk. Norway's sovereign wealth fund cut its Bangladesh exposure and exited key blue-chip positions — a signal from a sophisticated institutional investor about perceived country risk. Foreign direct investment inflows, already constrained by infrastructure and regulatory concerns, face an additional headwind from a banking sector perceived as unreliable.

The Accountability Gap — and the IMF Lever

The post-August 2024 interim government, operating under IMF programme conditions, has taken several structural steps. Bangladesh Bank reinstated international loan classification standards — reducing the overdue period for term loans from 180 days to 90 days, in line with Basel III norms. An independent asset-quality review by foreign firms exposed defaults that had been masked for years. The central bank issued BRPD Circular No. 14 directing banks to establish independent legal divisions with Chief Legal Officers reporting directly to managing directors.

Draft legislation — the Money Loan Court Ordinance 2025 and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Ordinance 2025 — has been prepared to accelerate recoveries. Five additional Money Loan Courts have been established in Dhaka and Chittagong. As of February 2024, Tk 1.78 trillion was already tied up in 72,543 pending cases in existing Money Loan Courts — a backlog that reflects not a lack of law but a systemic failure to enforce it.

The Wirecard and Enron precedents offer a specific lesson here: regulatory reform enacted after a financial scandal is not the same as accountability for the scandal itself. In Germany, Wirecard's collapse produced a restructured BaFin, new short-selling disclosure rules, and criminal charges against senior executives. In the United States, Enron produced Sarbanes-Oxley and the eventual conviction of its chief executives. The deterrent effect of those prosecutions shaped corporate governance behaviour for the next two decades.

Bangladesh's Anti-Corruption Commission has begun filing cases. Salman F Rahman is on remand. The S Alam Group faces multiple investigations. But the institutional architecture required to ensure that politically connected conglomerates cannot capture bank boards and direct credit at will — genuinely independent regulators, mandatory external audits with criminal liability, a functioning insolvency regime, and a judiciary capable of processing financial crime cases within years rather than decades — remains incomplete.

The Reform Imperative: From Exposure to Prevention

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office and a member of the banking reform task force, has been direct: the NPL problem was not new, it was hidden. The data, he said, had been a game of hide-and-seek for years. What the post-2024 transition has done is force transparency. What it has not yet done is dismantle the structural conditions — regulatory capture, political lending, inadequate collateral enforcement, and impunity for willful defaulters — that produced the crisis.

The lessons from global corporate fraud scandals converge on a single principle: disclosure without accountability produces temporary embarrassment, not lasting reform. Bangladesh's banks are now showing their real balance sheets. The harder work — recovering the funds, prosecuting those responsible, rebuilding institutional independence, and designing a credit system that allocates capital on risk rather than political proximity — is the decade of work that follows.

Bangladesh ranks first in Asia for NPL ratios, according to the Asian Development Bank's 2025 report. India's NPL ratio is 1.7 percent. South Korea's is 0.2 percent. The distance between those numbers and Bangladesh's 35 percent is not a gap in economic potential. It is a measurement of what systematic fraud, enabled by political capture, costs a developing economy over fifteen years.

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