Atlantic Hurricane Season and Cyclone Preparedness: Bangladesh's Disaster Response System

The Globe's Cyclone Season: A Warming World in Overdrive

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was, by virtually every measure, one for the record books. NOAA had forecast an above-normal season — 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes — and the season delivered. Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category-5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, forming in early July. Hurricanes Helene and Milton brought catastrophic destruction to the United States, together contributing to a 2024 season total of approximately $131 billion in damage and 442 fatalities. By the time the season ended on November 30, the verdict was unambiguous: climate-driven conditions — warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, La Niña development, reduced wind shear — had created a storm factory unlike anything in the historical average.

For 2025, NOAA predicted more of the same. Its May outlook assigned a 60 percent probability of an above-normal season, forecasting 13 to 19 named storms, including up to 5 major hurricanes. The driving factors were familiar: very warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, ENSO-neutral conditions, and a potentially more active West African monsoon — the atmospheric engine that seeds many Atlantic hurricanes. If the prediction holds, 2025 will be the tenth consecutive above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

Atlantic hurricanes and Bay of Bengal cyclones are not the same meteorological phenomenon, but they share the same physics and the same climate drivers. What happens in the warming Atlantic is a direct parallel to what happens in the warming Bay of Bengal — and it is in the Bay of Bengal that Bangladesh sits, exposed to the full force of the world's most deadly cyclone basin.

Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal: A History Written in Storm Surges

The numbers from Bangladesh's cyclone history are among the most sobering in the climate record. The 1970 Bhola cyclone — striking what was then East Pakistan — killed an estimated 300,000 to 500,000 people, making it the deadliest tropical cyclone in recorded history. The 1991 cyclone killed approximately 138,000 people and left 10 million homeless. These disasters drove one of the most intensive investments in disaster preparedness infrastructure in the developing world — not from abundance but from necessity, from the recognition that a country of 170 million people concentrated on a low-lying delta at the head of a funnel-shaped bay had no alternative.

The transformation in Bangladesh's cyclone mortality statistics over subsequent decades is one of the most remarkable achievements in disaster risk reduction anywhere in the world. Cyclone Sidr in 2007 killed approximately 3,500 people despite winds comparable to a Category-4 hurricane. Cyclone Aila in 2009 killed around 190. Cyclone Amphan in 2020 killed fewer than 30 in Bangladesh despite its Category-5 equivalent intensity. The contrast with 1970 and 1991 is not explained by the storms becoming less powerful — they have not. It is explained by the systematic construction of an early warning and evacuation system that has very few peers in the developing world.

May 2024 provided the latest data point. Cyclone Remal made landfall on Bangladesh's western coast on May 26, bringing wind speeds exceeding 118 km/h, storm surges of 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, and severe flooding across 51 upazilas in 10 districts — Barguna, Barishal, Bhola, Jhalokathi, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Bagerhat, Jashore, Khulna, and Satkhira, along with their offshore islands and chars. The storm caused extensive destruction to homes, infrastructure, farmland, fisheries, and the Sundarbans mangrove forest. It triggered, along with subsequent monsoon floods, an estimated 18 million people affected across Bangladesh through mid-2024. But the death toll, while tragic, was a fraction of what comparable storms produced a generation earlier — a direct consequence of the preparedness infrastructure that Bangladesh has spent decades building.

The Government Response Architecture

Bangladesh's cyclone response system operates through a layered institutional architecture that involves government agencies, the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society, and an ecosystem of NGO and international partners — all coordinated through a framework that has been progressively refined through decades of experience and international collaboration.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) functions as the technical core of the early warning system, issuing cyclone warning signals that trigger response protocols across the system. The Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) provides the governmental coordination framework, linking central government decision-making with district, upazila, and union levels. The Disaster Management Act 2012 established the legal and institutional framework for this multi-level coordination, creating a structure from the National Disaster Management Council down to the union disaster management committees that theoretically reach every community in the country's coastal zone.

Cyclone shelters represent the most visible component of Bangladesh's preparedness infrastructure. The country has constructed thousands of raised concrete cyclone shelters across its coastal districts, designed to withstand storm surge inundation and provide refuge for evacuated populations. The shelters serve dual purposes — functioning as schools or community facilities in non-emergency periods, and as storm refuges when warning signals are issued. Their construction has been one of the largest single investments in disaster risk reduction infrastructure in the developing world, supported by decades of government budgetary commitment and international development assistance.

Ahead of Cyclone Remal, the government announced BDT 20.25 million in humanitarian assistance — cash — to be distributed among the potentially affected population in 15 districts. Government, BDRCS, and partner agencies activated anticipatory action frameworks in the days before landfall, pre-positioning supplies and mobilising volunteers. This pre-landfall activation represents a significant shift from the purely reactive response models that characterised Bangladesh's earlier disaster management approach — a shift toward anticipatory action frameworks that deploy resources before impact rather than after.

The Cyclone Preparedness Programme: A Global Model

At the operational heart of Bangladesh's community-level cyclone response sits the Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) — an institutional arrangement that has become one of the most studied disaster preparedness models in the world. Established as a joint programme of the Government of Bangladesh and the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society in the aftermath of the 1970 Bhola disaster, and formally operationalised under the leadership of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the CPP represents nearly five decades of continuous community-based preparedness investment.

The CPP's scope is substantial: 203 employees and approximately 76,020 volunteers — equally split between men and women — operating across 7 zones, 13 districts, 42 upazilas, and 3,801 units. These volunteers are the last mile of Bangladesh's early warning system, ensuring that official meteorological warnings from the BMD reach coastal communities that might otherwise remain uninformed. When warning signals are issued, CPP volunteers disseminate information through flags, megaphones, and increasingly through digital tools. They assist in evacuation, support search and rescue, provide first aid, and coordinate relief distribution in the immediate aftermath of landfall.

The CPP received the Smith Tumsaroch Fund award from Thailand in 1998 in recognition of its contributions to saving lives — recognition from peers in the disaster management field of what Bangladesh's community-based model had achieved. Globally, the CPP is now cited regularly in disaster risk reduction literature as a model for how low-resource, community-rooted preparedness systems can dramatically reduce mortality even when storms cannot be prevented.

Digital innovation is gradually supplementing the CPP's traditional warning dissemination. The 'Disaster Alert for BD' mobile application, developed through a project supported by ADPC and the World Bank, has reached over 38,000 direct beneficiaries. In a survey of 106 community members who used the app ahead of Cyclone Remal, 84 percent fully understood the early warning messages the app provided — a significant achievement in a context where complex meteorological information has historically been difficult to communicate in accessible formats. One CPP volunteer, Anupam, described using both the traditional team leader warning system and the app: the app allowed him to check updates independently at any time, enabling him to mobilise over 30 youth volunteers in coordinated evacuations before Remal's landfall.

NGO and International Partner Contributions

Bangladesh's disaster response system functions as a genuine partnership between government agencies and an extensive NGO and international organisation ecosystem — a model that has evolved over decades of collaboration and mutual learning. Cyclone Remal demonstrated this partnership architecture in action.

The Start Network, a global humanitarian network of 130 member agencies, activated three separate funding mechanisms for Cyclone Remal — the first time Start Ready, Start Fund Anticipation, and Start Fund Rapid Response were all deployed for the same event. Forty-eight hours before landfall, Start Ready's cyclone trigger was activated, releasing pre-positioned funds to nine partners across four high-risk districts: Satkhira, Khulna, Patuakhali, and Barguna. Direct anticipatory assistance reached 30,000 people through early warning messaging, shelter preparedness kits, evacuation support, food and WASH assistance, livestock feed, and cash transfers. A key operational learning from the activation: mobile money transfers enabled rapid fund disbursement even during weekends and holidays when traditional banking services were unavailable — a practical innovation with significant implications for future responses.

The UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) reduced its average fund release time from 30 days post-landfall to 15 days through a Rapid Response mechanism deployed for Remal — effectively halving the bureaucratic gap between disaster impact and international funding availability. UNICEF provided WASH supplies reaching 356,223 people including nearly 10,000 persons with disabilities. WFP distributed cash assistance of 5,000 BDT (approximately $43) per household to 39,812 households. Humanitarian partners collectively reached over 4 million people in risk areas with early warning messages before or during the storm.

BRAC, Bangladesh's largest NGO and one of the largest in the world, alongside organisations like CARE Bangladesh and Practical Action, provide additional community-level preparedness and recovery infrastructure. The SUFAL consortium led by CARE deployed anticipatory action ahead of the Jamuna Basin floods that followed Remal, demonstrating the layered nature of Bangladesh's multi-hazard response challenge — cyclone response overlapping with flood response in the same operational period.

Remaining Gaps and Future Preparedness

Bangladesh's disaster response system has achieved outcomes that deserve genuine recognition. But recognition of achievement should not obscure the significant structural gaps that remain — gaps that the 2024 disaster sequence made plainly visible.

Early warning coverage remains incomplete. According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics data, between 2015 and 2020, less than 30 percent of the population received effective early warnings. The Disaster Alert for BD app has extended digital early warning reach, but coverage gaps persist particularly in the most remote and vulnerable coastal communities — precisely the communities that face the greatest storm surge risk. The National Early Action Protocol for Cyclone, developed in 2024, acknowledges that while preparedness has improved substantially in saving lives, cyclones continue to cause significant damage to livelihoods, assets, and development infrastructure. Saving lives is the paramount achievement; building resilience that also protects livelihoods and assets is the next frontier.

Embankment infrastructure is chronically under-maintained. Cyclone Remal's storm surges breached embankments across multiple coastal districts, flooding agricultural land with saltwater and rendering some soil temporarily unfit for cultivation. Bangladesh has approximately 3,500 kilometres of coastal embankments, but maintenance investment has historically been insufficient relative to the deterioration that seasonal flooding and storm surges produce. The damage from repeated breaches compounds: saltwater intrusion degrades soil for multiple growing seasons, creating food insecurity that extends well beyond the immediate disaster period.

Climate change intensification is the overarching challenge. The same warming ocean temperatures that fueled Beryl into an unprecedented early-season Category-5 Atlantic hurricane are warming the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh already experiences severe tropical cyclones more frequently than historical patterns suggested. NOAA's projection of a tenth consecutive above-normal Atlantic hurricane season reflects a global trend — and the same physics that drive Atlantic activity drive Bay of Bengal activity. Bangladesh's disaster preparedness system was built for a historical climate. The future climate it will face is significantly more severe.

The financing architecture for disaster risk reduction needs systematic strengthening. Bangladesh's Ministry of Disaster Management operates with a budget that, while growing, remains inadequate relative to the scale of vulnerability it is asked to address. The Humanitarian Response Plan for cyclone and monsoon floods launched in 2024 represented a systematic attempt to coordinate multi-partner response under a unified framework — an institutional step forward. But the chronic underfunding of anticipatory action relative to emergency response means that investment continues to flow primarily to recovery rather than to the preparedness that makes recovery less necessary.

What Bangladesh has built in five decades of disaster preparedness investment — from the CPP's 76,000 volunteers to the network of cyclone shelters to the early warning dissemination systems — is extraordinary given the resources available. The question the accelerating climate crisis poses is whether that system can be strengthened quickly enough to match the pace at which the threat it was designed to address is intensifying. In a warming world where Atlantic hurricane records fall every season, the Bay of Bengal is on the same trajectory — and Bangladesh's preparedness must keep pace.

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